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Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Oh wow.... 😳

www.ukrinform.net

Intelligence obtains documents on Russia's assessment of its losses on battlefield, Zelensky names figures

In closed official reports, the Russians acknowledge their irretrievable losses at 1,315,000, but Ukraine considers these estimates to be underestimated. — Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net www.ukrinform.net

He also reported that intelligence had obtained important documents on Russia's assessment of battlefield losses. In particular, these documents record a change in the ratio of Russians killed and wounded, namely from 100% losses to 62% killed and 38% wounded.
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If these documents are true... 62% killed is over 800k killed. Crikey!
 
RnR_au said:
Oh wow.... 😳
If these documents are true... 62% killed is over 800k killed. Crikey!
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Flying IEDs are no joke when delivered straight to the body.
And with their spread of limited infantry, who are also receiving these care packages. There's no one coming to save the wounded.
 
RnR_au said:
I'm sure I've said this before, a quote from my Eve Online days... "If you are in a fair fight, you planned it wrong." 🙂
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Russia has many advantages.
We should celebrate when Ukraine finds some.

Yet we should be cautious. Russian numbers may yet prove difficult to deal with. Since the mobilization in late 2022, Ukraine has only found one actual opening with Kursk. Rest of the frontline has steadily moved in Russia's favor just due to the sheer number of men being sacrificed.

Ukraine advances in this one area, and Russia will send another 100,000 men to plug the gap.
 
AFU has been making small gains from the starlink shutdown, erasing any rus progress in '25 in some areas.

even the civilian targeted rocket and drone tempo is down.
the theory is that iran kept certain parts of the shahed secret such that they were the only source, thereby keeping rus on the hook for continued payments/licensing. with iran needing all the available shaheds they can make and not able to fly international cargo transports, rus is left with a bunch of gerans missing key parts and therefore nonfunctional.
 
Jaskalas said:
Russia has many advantages.
We should celebrate when Ukraine finds some.

Yet we should be cautious. Russian numbers may yet prove difficult to deal with. Since the mobilization in late 2022, Ukraine has only found one actual opening with Kursk. Rest of the frontline has steadily moved in Russia's favor just due to the sheer number of men being sacrificed.

Ukraine advances in this one area, and Russia will send another 100,000 men to plug the gap.
Click to expand...
That still sounds like a winning bet
 
Jaskalas said:
Ukraine advances in this one area, and Russia will send another 100,000 men to plug the gap.
Click to expand...
As talked about earlier in this thread, due to lack of coin in the regions, this is increasing difficult. Folk are just not signing up for SVO contracts in the same numbers as before.

The Russian Federal government have forced the regions to pay for the contract soldiers. This makes the Federal budget look better, but it slowly bankrupts the regions.

The same calculus is still looming before Putin. Do a mobilisation or not.
 
Ukraine is proceeding cautiously, doing everything in their power to soften enemy positions and restrict supply lines BEFORE they move in. This is a crawl, but a crawl in the positive direction.

1: We have seen this before, and Russia's sheer numbers usually plug the gap and prevent further gains.
2: Not sure Ukraine has the appetite to lose as many men as it would take for a sudden breakthrough blitz. Not when Russia has so many men on the frontline. This is a surgical effort using sharp, not blunt instruments. No one is rapidly sweeping such a heavily fortified and dense line of contact.

That this is being fought primarily with drones, also leads me to believe that the area of operation is specific and may not be compatible with NATO's old rapid maneuver warfare. Cannot out pace your area of saturation with drones or you'll be left exposed with undisturbed enemy positions.

This contest is slow and steady.
 
K1052 said:
There have been quite a few recent reports of significant AFU tactical success due to extremely heavy drone use and the communications disaster that cutting the Russians off of Starlink has created.
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I always thought they should have set up the Russian starlink devices as a man in the middle attack and try to learn how to decrypt and maybe try to manipulate the data and use it against russia
 
Ukraine has become the drone super power it set out to be several years ago. I don't think it can be argued otherwise, not with outfits like SkyFall producing more drones than the AFU can take, not with all the ME countries pleading with them for interceptors. 'My my my, how the turn tables.'

AFU keeps doing this 'use 300-400 drones at once' to clear a path for immediate infantry mop up and we could start seeing entire regions of Russian control start to collapse pretty soon. Making me wonder how many Ukrainian drone operator equivalents of Simo Häyhä they have by now.

No Buff? No Bone? No problem! :grin:


I too would like to know what prompted the ketamine nazi though.
 
kage69 said:
Ukraine has become the drone super power it set out to be several years ago.
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Russia has allocated over 100,000 troops for their drone program.
Theirs have also been hurting Ukraine a lot. Starlink's disruption tilted the balance of power. But for how long? I suspect Russia will "fix" this issue by year's end. Hopefully not, but it wouldn't be the first time.
 
Jaskalas said:
Russia has allocated over 100,000 troops for their drone program.
Theirs have also been hurting Ukraine a lot. Starlink's disruption tilted the balance of power. But for how long? I suspect Russia will "fix" this issue by year's end. Hopefully not, but it wouldn't be the first time.
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Cappy Army had a report on this. Russia has their satellites scheduled for later this year.
RnR_au said:
Elon apparently. Ukraine supplied him with a whitelist of valid terminals inside the geographic borders of Ukraine and Starlink switched all non-valid off.
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Same video talks about this. He claims that Starlink isn't used for the UAF, instead it's StarGuard that is controlled by the DOD.
 
Looks like Russia's woe across the frontline are expanding, and not just due to starlink.
Ukraine is expanding frequent drone strikes from 50km up to 150km. A massive widening of the "grey zone" should the resources to achieve this remain steady. Giving Russia's logistics a real nightmare.

Ukraine’s plan to cut off Russia’s front-line troops is working​

2174f8c3261daf9be86f64c6e8e6b48a


https://twitter.com/x/status/2032842266067271742
 
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