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Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

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IronWing said:
Nah, that’s the mistake Iraq made. You don’t sit on your ass while the enemy prepares. U.S. doctrine would be to wipe out the defenses before troop advance.
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Iran does not possess our capabilities so wait mostly they must. When we show up a few miles offshore they'll have a lot of opportunities.
 
redpill said:
Not doable in the age of drone tech. Or, in the age of a couple morons directing military actions. That and depleted AA for dealing with drones and missiles. Iran took a lesson from NK and dispersed it's weapon systems and stockpiles in caves and underground bunkers. We won't get enough of them in a few weeks of bombing.

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We are not ready for a ground war with Iran. We are not ready for a 'limited' occupation of specific territories. Our dimwitted president (see post 2730) is slow walking us into another Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan. SMH.
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That's my point. Iran would be foolish to wait until the US was ready and while the US degraded their defenses..
 
K1052 said:
Just getting the Iranians to the table is going to require significant concessions and the WH has not internalized that because we are "winning" the war as far as they've told Trump. I assume that in response he will green light the kind of ground operation that eventually ends in something like Hostomel.

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I don't think so. Unlike the Russians, the US military makes logistics a priority. I think we will win the battles - but the number of coffins arriving in Dover AFB will sour the public very quickly - do you concur? Iran will probably do what Ukraine does and post FPV videos of drones killing US soldiers to social media. God I hope the last person in the room isn't Hegseth or Cruz.
 
redpill said:
I don't think so. Unlike the Russians, the US military makes logistics a priority. I think we will win the battles - but the number of coffins arriving in Dover AFB will sour the public very quickly - do you concur? Iran will probably do what Ukraine does and post FPV videos of drones killing US soldiers to social media. God I hope the last person in the room isn't Hegseth or Cruz.
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Airborne assaults on enemy held territory are not exactly famously hitch free, from a historical perspective.

Can the US capture Kharg? I think so. Could it also go horribly wrong? For sure. Will they be under withering fire from all sorts of shit we'll be hard pressed to stop on an island brimming with flammable shit? Almost certainly. Does it change the strategic outlook even if it succeeds? Not one iota.
 
pauldun170 said:
In what world does a President...screw it ANY leader recieve briefings like this?
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Nine years ago, in Trump's first term, he was already too stupid to comprehend regular written briefs for the POTUS. So they had to infantilize the information he received. Back when he was much younger and healthier than he is now.

His own bubble of disinformation is absolute at this point, after choosing staff consisting entirely of yes-men. Who, themselves, NEED TO ALL be prosecuted for this illegal war and its many crimes.
 
WelshBloke said:
I don't know what will happen but I'm guessing that Trumps puppet masters plan is a couple of hundred dead US troops, a massive escalation in military action, and Trump getting a "war surge" in support in the polls.

So basically a human sacrifice to increase his popularity!
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None of this is real to him. It's all posturing, "Kayfabe" if you will, to him these are not actual human lives being lost, just elements in his performance as a heel.
 
The actual human lives being lost have not even begun to be calculated. As the dildo of consequences will rapidly expand... globally. Mass starvation and famine are possible results of Trump's actions. The collapse of European peace and stability across the continent, ushering in right wing regimes to topple freedom and liberty.

WW3 has only just begun. We should beware how it spirals from here.
 
Somethings gotta give. Israel, US cannot withstand the long term continuation of the status quo. Esp Israel with daily missile waves launched against it. Retaliatory missile strikes that are causing far less damage than what it has inflicted upon the Iranians. Still its enough to push them over the edge.

N'yahu the chaos monger will likely hit vital power/O&G facilities sooner or later.
 
amenx said:
N'yahu the chaos monger will likely hit vital power/O&G facilities sooner or later.
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Even the Saudi crown prince is worried about that (yeah, I know, that guy). The concern is an angry Iran that lashes out at neighbors when the US and Israel have left Iran and it has a chance to recover.

That is Israel's preferred goal - bomb Iran into abject poverty. See Gaza as an example of an Israeli plan for peace.
 
I love how the media says things like 'confusion' about what each side wants. How about 'Trump lies again about talks that simply don't exist.' This is The Guardian front page.

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The flailing to find a way out of this without losing face, which Iran is absolutely not letting him do, is getting pretty intense. I assume he green lights a ground incursion by the end of the week that ends up with its own wikipedia page and not one of the happy ones.


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"Massive bombing campaign". Swell, operation Linebacker lives again 🙄. I can't imagine it having any positive effect. More likely, it will cause the Iranians to trust us even less and pull out of negotiations and stay out.

The administration just don't get that Iran is a very large country and has a population of ~90 million. All they have to do is survive to win. Take a look at Ukraine vs Russia. This administration is filled with the most dense staff ever; it's a wonder the white house hasn't sunk into the ground. <sigh>
 
K1052 said:
They are calling it Operation Impotent Rage. They are saying it very strongly.



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Sounds like Operation Fuck-up of Epic Proportions to me. The whole gulf will be up in flames. Iran had already established their deterent capabilites and made clear how they would respond. By taking out the whole regions O&G and possibly power and desal plants if their own critical infra were to be attacked. Israel/US have already taken out virtually all of military targets, so whats left that a "massive bombing" campaign would do?
 
I'm pretty confident that we'll see some form of "boots on the ground", and fairly soon.

You don't move all those marines into theater if you're not going in, and all the reports of various SOF units moving to assorted bases in the region doesn't help either. Couple those up with Trump's insistence on a total 4-6 week timeline and things are likely to escalate.
 
K1052 said:
The flailing to find a way out of this without losing face, which Iran is absolutely not letting him do, is getting pretty intense. I assume he green lights a ground incursion by the end of the week that ends up with its own wikipedia page and not one of the happy ones.


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Translation: SOMEBODY HELP ME!! My lies and threats are not working and I'm flailing all over the place over here! I really just want to watch video of stuff blowing up!
 
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