Question Is the cost of RAM going up everywhere?

[coercitiv]

We should be thinking of lowering voltages to extend component lifetime. Rig for an extended duty cycle. Living on the edge is no longer useful or wise.

Oh darn, I've prepped for this my entire life. I feel like that kid that painted fences all over the neighborhood!

• CPU : set max temp to 85C on both AMD and Intel platforms, Adaptive voltage + slight Vcore undervolt, PL2 or PPT to 120W, make sure SA or SoC voltages are not out of control due to XMP/EXPO
• GPU : undervolt by 50mV, -50 or -100Mhz boost, -20-30% power, FPS cap to 90 or 120+ for faster paced games
• SSD: provision 5-10% to lower write amplification, especially if drive is used close to capacity
• Research optimal cooling for your setup, especially when it comes to fan count and their orientation

The problem is there is no mechanism for the consumer market to correct this issue. Everything is being sold business to business. Now, in my opinion, it's a circle jerk of money changing hands between and handful of very large businesses, but the end product's profits don't justify the CAPEX; said another way, this AI bubble has to burst at some point. That said, for the present moment, the suppliers of all this hardware are making a killing selling almost exclusively business to business.

They're also killing a lot of business. The chips are redirected from one vertical to another, plenty of medium enterprises will suffocate in one year or less.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

They're also killing a lot of business. The chips are redirected from one vertical to another, plenty of medium enterprises will suffocate in one year or less.

I will be astonished if it does not happen.

@Golgatha

There is already a coined term for the current big biz to big biz circle jerk; Infinite money glitch.

 

[FelixDeCat]

We should be thinking of lowering voltages to extend component lifetime. Rig for an extended duty cycle. Living on the edge is no longer useful or wise.

I always (try) to make long term plans with platform upgrades. Always run stock with a little overhead for some temporary built in manufacturer allowed CPU and Ram overclocking. (Xms)

I used to run full time oc ing back in the early days but got tired of the occasional crash and premature wear. Just be happy the platform is reliable, stable and capable. 🙂

Heck I've even run RAM drives for 25 years (typically 4GB) to keep drive wear down. I currently have an 8GB using AIM toolkit. Redirect c:/temp and browser cache to it. Also a handy scratch drive for audio and video editing.

 

[DZero]

I will be astonished if it does not happen.

@Golgatha

There is already a coined term for the current big biz to big biz circle jerk; Infinite money glitch.

I feel that this is the intention: eliminate the mid and small bussiness.

 

[coercitiv]

China’s cut-rate DRAM tests Samsung, SK in HBM4 race

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are locked in a race to mass-produce sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory, but Chinese rivals are making gains elsewhere — fl

www.koreaherald.com

... cut-price Chinese chips are proving tempting. US hardware firms HP and Dell are reportedly conducting quality tests on CXMT’s DRAM, while Taiwan’s Asus and Acer have sought cooperation with Chinese partners. Signs are emerging that aggressive pricing is translating into demand.

“Chinese firms are waging a volume-based strategy starting with general-purpose memory, backed by state subsidies and domestic demand from AI servers and locally developed GPUs,” said an industry source who requested anonymity. “As Korean companies concentrate on HBM4, there are visible cracks emerging in (their hold on) the legacy market.”

The challenge for Korean chipmakers is that the legacy segment still accounts for a significant portion of their earnings. More than half of the total DRAM production capacity at both Samsung and SK hynix is understood to be allocated to general-purpose products. Even if they maintain leadership in HBM4, a deepening erosion of the mainstream market could eventually weigh on profitability.

Fast forward a couple of years from now, certain memory manufacturers will come home crying for protectionist measures and bailouts to help them withstand the flood of cheap memory and NAND from chinese suppliers. They'll argue their products are of national security importance, that entire business sectors and millions of jobs are at stake. At that time, I hope the help they receive will include partial nationalization, because that's the way one protects national interests when corporations mess around for easy bucks while completely sabotaging the future of your economy.

I'm not even mad about the consumer prices, we've been here before. We are literally destroying companies and jobs to build silicon temples for vain people who would rather see the world burn than lose their fortunes.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Fast forward a couple of years from now, certain memory manufacturers will come home crying for protectionist measures and bailouts to help them withstand the flood of cheap memory and NAND from chinese suppliers.

Why wouldn't they? Though it's less-likely for them to do so if they keep getting bought out by OpenAI et al. It may seem silly until you remember that their entire supply through 2026 and 2027 has been bought out with more demand behind it. It also remains to be seen if CXMT can meet anyone's needs.

 

[coercitiv]

Why wouldn't they?

Because they just opened up the gates for state sponsored competition. CXMT will meet some needs tomorrow, more needs next year, and before you know it the mem manufacturers will be fighting subsidized RAM and NAND suppliers and crying for help.

It may seem silly until you remember that their entire supply through 2026 and 2027 has been bought out with more demand behind it.

I have my doubts about what has been bought vs. what has been paid, but that is besides the point, they have abandoned traditional clients for these "no-brainer" deals. Those clients have nowhere else to turn to, so they are heavily incentivized to make those CXMT chips work.

More than half of the total DRAM production capacity at both Samsung and SK hynix is understood to be allocated to general-purpose products. Even if they maintain leadership in HBM4, a deepening erosion of the mainstream market could eventually weigh on profitability.

 

[maddie]

Why wouldn't they? Though it's less-likely for them to do so if they keep getting bought out by OpenAI et al. It may seem silly until you remember that their entire supply through 2026 and 2027 has been bought out with more demand behind it. It also remains to be seen if CXMT can meet anyone's needs.

How cute, you still believe in a freemarket theory.

 

[DZero]

China’s cut-rate DRAM tests Samsung, SK in HBM4 race

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are locked in a race to mass-produce sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory, but Chinese rivals are making gains elsewhere — fl

www.koreaherald.com

Fast forward a couple of years from now, certain memory manufacturers will come home crying for protectionist measures and bailouts to help them withstand the flood of cheap memory and NAND from chinese suppliers. They'll argue their products are of national security importance, that entire business sectors and millions of jobs are at stake. At that time, I hope the help they receive will include partial nationalization, because that's the way one protects national interests when corporations mess around for easy bucks while completely sabotaging the future of your economy.

I'm not even mad about the consumer prices, we've been here before. We are literally destroying companies and jobs to build silicon temples for vain people who would rather see the world burn than lose their fortunes.

Issue is Micron, they already confirmed that Crucial es gone for good. Trump would play dirty with that.

Koreans might survive due quality (Samsung SSDs are considered top tier), Micron not.

 

[Steltek]

Honestly, it doesn't matter what Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung do in the long run.

Today, CEOs have very short memories. Those memories generally correspond to their short term profits and stock valuations. Gotta protect those huge, many multi-million dollar bonuses after all.

If AI literally collapsed tomorrow, as long as Micron, SK, and Samsung offer good enough pricing, big business will immediately forget everything about how they got totally screwed over and will subsequently bend over backwards to buy what the big three have to sell.

That selective memory regarding being backstabbed is exactly what allows things like this to happen today.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Because they just opened up the gates for state sponsored competition.

That gate opened on its own.

CXMT will meet some needs tomorrow, more needs next year, and before you know it the mem manufacturers will be fighting subsidized RAM and NAND suppliers and crying for help.

That would have happened anyway. The only variable is that crushing demand will control how much CXMT can charge for their product. Had it not been for the AI boom they'd need to dump at lower cost (which is what every other state-sponsored industry from China winds up doing anyway).

I have my doubts about what has been bought vs. what has been paid, but that is besides the point, they have abandoned traditional clients for these "no-brainer" deals. Those clients have nowhere else to turn to, so they are heavily incentivized to make those CXMT chips work.

They've no more abandoned traditional clients than the traditional clients have abandoned them (by not offering to pay as much for capacity).

How cute, you still believe in a freemarket theory.

What I believe in is irrelevant. Someone bought out capacity, period. It's not some huge conspiracy.

 

[maddie]

That would have happened anyway. The only variable is that crushing demand will control how much CXMT can charge for their product. Had it not been for the AI boom they'd need to dump at lower cost (which is what every other state-sponsored industry from China winds up doing anyway).

That's a matter I've always had difficulty in understanding.

How can an economy perpetually sell below cost, which is what I assume you mean by dumping, and yet have retained earnings to expand and grow? My mind is too small to encompass such a reality.

 

[gdansk]

That's a matter I've always had difficulty in understanding.

How can an economy perpetually sell below cost, which is what I assume you mean by dumping, and yet have retained earnings to expand and grow? My mind is too small to encompass such a reality.

It isn't perpetual, obviously. And right now there is no doubt they sell well above cost. But soon, in the next glut, they are well positioned to kill the most vulnerable memory company.

That is when the central planners achieve their remuneration for playing the long game. The barriers to entry mean killing a competitor is permanent.

The other way is to mimic central planning at the corporate level by having state-sized, diversified companies able to outlast the specialized, quarterly earnings obsessed American (and European too) companies. Korean memory companies were conglomerates to stand up to boom and bust cycles. But it seems they're specializing too much these days too.

 

[maddie]

It isn't perpetual, obviously. And right now there is no doubt they sell well above cost. But soon, in the next glut, they are well positioned to kill the most vulnerable memory company.

That is when the central planners achieve their remuneration for playing the long game. The barriers to entry mean killing a competitor is permanent.

The other way is to mimic central planning at the corporate level by having state-sized, diversified companies able to outlast the specialized, quarterly earnings obsessed American (and European too) companies. Korean memory companies were conglomerates to stand up to boom and bust cycles. But it seems they're specializing too much these days too.

Central planning is not equivalent to dumping. Many conflate the two. Dumping to eliminate competition is a means to monopolize and thus raise margins when achieved, I don't see this is China. There is cutthroat competition there with relatively lower margins.

When I see how our mega Western companies operate, I sometimes wonder if we need to rehabilitate chastity belts.

 

[gdansk]

Central planning is not equivalent to dumping

I didn't say it was. Nor did I mean to imply that. Pretty sure I didn't say anything that should lead to that interpretation either.

The next memory glut is when selling below cost will be required for all memory makers. CXMT needn't diversify to survive. They can specialize in memory because they know they have a guaranteed demand for the products from the state and the R&D expenditure is largely sourced from the state. CXMT can at that time continue to increase capacity as planned if they want. This could kill Micron and hurt SK/Samsung for some time if no measures are taken against it. That's when it would constitute dumping. And the dumbest, moronic consumers will rejoice for the memory will be cheap. But ultimately you do not want CXMT dumping during the next glut. It will reduce competition long term.

Micron is the only other memory maker that isn't diversified. And other companies (SK/Samsung are on DoD whitelist) can sell to their state so they have no guaranteed demand. SK and Samsung are chaebols with many other businesses to keep funding their operations while reducing capacity. It'll just hurt their bottom line but they can make it through as usual.

Ideally both CXMT and Micron survive, though the first isn't in doubt due to the scale of Made In China funding. Unfortunately, this would require long term planning and there is none in the US. Micron's financials are great now so they should be putting away money to prepare for CXMT's assault. Instead they are returning it to investors and will be forced to beg the government to protect them in a few years when this happens.

 

[DrMrLordX]

That's a matter I've always had difficulty in understanding.

How can an economy perpetually sell below cost, which is what I assume you mean by dumping, and yet have retained earnings to expand and grow? My mind is too small to encompass such a reality.

The long-term goal is to destroy foreign competition and create market dependency. Then prices can be controlled centrally. Otherwise, China is a command economy that can move investments/subsidies around at will. If something is a critical priority, it will be subsidized, period.

 

[maddie]

I didn't say it was. Nor did I mean to imply that. Pretty sure I didn't say anything that should lead to that interpretation either.

The next memory glut is when selling below cost will be required for all memory makers. CXMT needn't diversify to survive. They can specialize in memory because they know they have a guaranteed demand for the products from the state and the R&D expenditure is largely sourced from the state. CXMT can at that time continue to increase capacity as planned if they want. This could kill Micron and hurt SK/Samsung for some time if no measures are taken against it. That's when it would constitute dumping. And the dumbest, moronic consumers will rejoice for the memory will be cheap. But ultimately you do not want CXMT dumping during the next glut. It will reduce competition long term.

Micron is the only other memory maker that isn't diversified. And other companies (SK/Samsung are on DoD whitelist) can sell to their state so they have no guaranteed demand. SK and Samsung are chaebols with many other businesses to keep funding their operations while reducing capacity. It'll just hurt their bottom line but they can make it through as usual.

Ideally both CXMT and Micron survive, though the first isn't in doubt due to the scale of Made In China funding. Unfortunately, this would require long term planning and there is none in the US. Micron's financials are great now so they should be putting away money to prepare for CXMT's assault. Instead they are returning it to investors and will be forced to beg the government to protect them in a few years when this happens.

The central planning comment was not in reply to anything you wrote, but a general statement to others in the thread. Should have been clearer, apologies.

 

[Steltek]

Well, I guess OpenAI isn't going bust anytime soon, as the the big entities just can't seem to keep from throwing money at them to burn away:

OpenAI lands record $110 billion investment backed by Nvidia, Amazon, and SoftBank

 

[DrMrLordX]

Softbank investments always end so well!

 

[Steltek]

Sub $500 computers likely to disappear by 2028 due to DRAM crisis:

https://www.techspot.com/news/111524-gartner-sub-500-entry-level-pcs-could-disappear.html

____________________________________

HP says memory costs now make up 35% of the cost of a PC, expecting double digit drop in PC shipments:

https://www.techspot.com/news/111472-hp-warns-ram-now-makes-up-35-cost.html

 

[EXCellR8]

Yea, our rep at Dell informed us that they're hiking prices at the end of the month; we've already seen the cost of our spec machines jump once already this year.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Looks like some retailers are already doing exactly what some of us speculated they would from the beginning; try to give you the refund of the original purchase price instead of replacing the ram. U-mart; don't shop smart, shop U-mart! Took it even further and RMA'd the kit so they could resell it for a profit. Leaving the owner with a Pawn Stars - The best I can do is your purchase price back, as the answer.

Good to see the other Steve doing some consumer advocacy too. We can not have too much of this in the tech tuber space. I expect Corsair will send a replacement kit to the owner. Hopefully stops U-mart from pulling these shenanigans again, but I would not bank on it.

 

[Golgatha]

Looks like some retailers are already doing exactly what some of us speculated they would from the beginning; try to give you the refund of the original purchase price instead of replacing the ram. U-mart; don't shop smart, shop U-mart! Took it even further and RMA'd the kit so they could resell it for a profit. Leaving the owner with a Pawn Stars - The best I can do is your purchase price back, as the answer.

Good to see the other Steve doing some consumer advocacy too. We can not have too much of this in the tech tuber space. I expect Corsair will send a replacement kit to the owner. Hopefully stops U-mart from pulling these shenanigans again, but I would not bank on it.

Yeah, I held on to a failed Inland 4TB NVME drive for a couple of weeks because I paid $240 for it and it's now $600 (on sale from $800 lol). Exchange if there's stock or refund the actual purchase price is a pretty common store policy. Thankfully Micro Center is exchanged in the store for all Inland products.

 

[aigomorla]

Yup i can see this happening with my Gskill Zeta Neo's.
If they go out, im 1000000000000000% sure Gskill is just gonna refund me what i spent and not replace them. You can't find DDR5 ECC-REG with EXPO profile in 192GB packages anymore, because the 48GB stick is near impossible to get even for the non ECC version.

I remember samsung got fined 300 million a while back ago for trying to do this. I hope every last one of these ram manufactures get fined in the billions to lose all profit they make.

I also hope Trump realizes what's going on and loosens Tariffs on China so they can flood our market with acceptable DDR5. Tariffs only work if your trying to prevent American companies from going bankrupt because of Chinese suppliers flooding market with product.

However there should be exceptions when American companies do not want to supply to the general consumer because large corporations are buying entire production lines, and its no longer from saturation, but lack of supply to the consumer.

At this point i honestly even don't care where the ram comes from. It can come from Russia even, as long as we get our prices back, which im scared we probably wont, as when the prices are inflated at the manufactures side, they rarely come down if any even after the bubble explodes.

 

[jpiniero]

https://videocardz.com/newz/v-color-to-launch-11-ddr5-memory-kits-with-fillers-you-can-now-fake-it-until-ramapocalypse-ends

Now there's Fake RAM so you can think you have more ram.