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Tesla Cybertruck

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It's not about market supply:

1. Appeals to a new market

2. Mass-produce at a lower cost

3. Quality is legit good
Not sure which one is the bigger polluter. But not using the cowhide would be a waste. We could just move to a more environmentally friendly tanning process.
 
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I think that is a fair criticism of Musk

According to ChatGPT:

Tesla FSD (Full Self-Driving) is sometimes safer than humans in limited conditions, but overall it is NOT proven safer than humans in all real-world driving.

"By Tesla’s own math, it reveals that its robotaxis are 4x worse at driving than humans, with redactions hiding even more details":


Competitor data:

Waymo (Level 4 — actually driverless)

What the data shows:
~90% fewer serious crashes than humans
~10× fewer injury crashes in some reporting
Statistically lower injury + airbag crashes across multiple categories
Millions of miles with no driver at all

Key point:

This is the only system here that can replace a human driver (in limited areas)

Reality:

Works only in mapped cities + controlled conditions
Doesn’t try to drive everywhere

Verdict:
YES - Waymo is genuinely safer than human drivers (where it operates)

The gap is NOT small - it’s huge:

Waymo = true autonomous system (robot driver)
Tesla = driver assistance

That’s why:

Waymo can legally run driverless taxis
Tesla cannot

My take:

1. Full self-driving is a desperately-needed technology:

* The United States has the highest total number of car accidents in the world
* We kill 40,000 Americans on U.S. roads every year
* 34 people die every day in America from drunk-driving crashes
* There are over 2 million car accident injuries annual in the states
* ~1.2 million die worldwide every year from car accidents (2 deaths every minute)
* We need better solutions for young & old drivers, as well as people with other impairments (injuries, disabilities, substance abuse, etc.)

2. People take issue not so much with the technology, but with unbridled capitalism:

* It's the same with A.I.: the issue is not really about the technology itself, it's the way it's managed & advertised
* Tesla unleashed a self-driving beta on public roads, which has literally killed people, whereas Waymo has done it in a much more responsible manner on controlled roads
* They also hyped it up to seems like it does more than it does & that it would be fully available "any day now"

3. Tesla has been VERY careful about the actual legalities of their FSD software:

* Illegal lying (fraud) has not clearly proven for Tesla FSD in a court case (to date, at least).
* The root issue is really "overly optimistic CEO predictions", which are treated in the business world as “forward-looking statements”
* I don't agree with this or like this at all. After my Jeep Renegade fiasco, I learned to only buy what is available & reliable right now, today. The article you posted points that out with all of the different hardware revisions available that never truly line up to what is being hyped-up...

tbh today's Tesla FSD is absolutely incredible & they could market it just on actual existing features alone. Plus, people like to be a part of something exciting & get new features, so Tesla could have spoon-fed updates for decades that way, rather than just saying "Autopilot real soon now".

Same issue with their Optimus robot: they advertised fully-autonomous robots that were actually being tele-operated, which soured things a bit. Instead, they could have simply marketed it as a bipedal remote-control robot to help grandma in her own home or be able to WFH with disabilities or any NUMBER of amazing use-case scenarios!!

The primary reason I don't own a Tesla right now is because I don't have easy charging access. I was hoping the Cybertruck would have the 500-mile battery, but now it's just a political boat anchor. But as far as FSD, as with AI, "today will be the worst it will ever be", and self-driving cars are DEFINITELY overdue for humanity's safety!!

Also, I can't see the future, but I don't think Tesla can effectively achieve FSD without LIDAR. As the technology stands today, it's really quite phenomenal, but I don't think the current hardware stack can drive me to the airport, then drive itself home & park lol. Especially not with this annoucement:

 
tesla tried to jump ahead by skipping the slow path of using all the sensors(optical/laser/radar/ultrasonic) to get to the theoretical endstate (optical + super ai as good as a human). that greed in not wanting to spend on the hardware and the testing/validation process is what is biting them in the ass.

the responsible slow path of baby steps with all the sensors and then paring away the unnecessary bits years later as the ai got better seems to have paid off for waymo.

what i find more interesting is with waymo's massive lead, do they even bother selling autonomous cars to uber and lyft? the 2 rideshare companies hosed money in the startup phase for the customer data/registration/name-recognition on the premise that the car hardware would be available for purchase later and their app would have all the user accounts and data giving them control of the market. shouldnt waymo keep their tech inhouse and build the client network themselves to get all the profit?
 
tesla tried to jump ahead by skipping the slow path of using all the sensors(optical/laser/radar/ultrasonic) to get to the theoretical endstate (optical + super ai as good as a human).

Unless it's bright, foggy, raining, snowing, etc. lol. I suspect Tesla will upgrade to a non-LIDAR package to improve the existing sensor suite, like a 4D imaging radar, thermal & infrared cameras, event-based cameras as neuromorphic sensors, improved onboard cameras (HDR, wide, low-light, multiple exposure fusion, etc.).
 
what i find more interesting is with waymo's massive lead, do they even bother selling autonomous cars to uber and lyft? the 2 rideshare companies hosed money in the startup phase for the customer data/registration/name-recognition on the premise that the car hardware would be available for purchase later and their app would have all the user accounts and data giving them control of the market. shouldnt waymo keep their tech inhouse and build the client network themselves to get all the profit?

It boils down to "core competency". By staying focused on autonomy:

1. Someone else makes the cars
2. Waymo moves the needle on improving the FSD technology
3. Someone else handles the consumer ride network (feet availability, app coordination, payments, etc.)

Uber & Lyft have had to manage:

1. Dozens of murders
2. Hundreds of car accident deaths
3. Thousands of assaults
4. Tens of thousands of car accidents
5. Background checks
6. Payment processing
7. Fleet management (around 8 million couriers worldwide)

Much of this would be either eliminated or reduced with safer self-driving cars. IF Tesla succeeds, they will make BILLIONS, because:

1. They own the cars
2. They own the FSD tech
3. They own the taxi service

Uber is currently worth around $150 billion dollars (Rides, Eats, Freight), so there are HUGE opportunities out there! Also, Tesla just unveiled their Semi with a 1-million-mile battery:


Priestley explained that the redesigned Tesla Semi is about 1,000 pounds lighter than earlier versions, per Electrek. As a result, the long-range model can now carry a payload comparable to conventional Class 8 diesel trucks.

In real-world use, Tesla Semis are already putting up impressive numbers. The test fleet has logged more than 13.5 million miles and maintains a 95% uptime, Electrek reported.

When issues arise, over 75% of trucks are back in service within 24 hours, with about half returned in under an hour.

According to Priestley, the economics already favor Tesla. In California, the Semi is about 50% cheaper to operate per mile on energy costs compared to diesel, and nationwide, the total cost of ownership is nearly 20% lower per mile.
 
Misleading title, the battery could last 1M miles, not rage of 1M miles. This says lead test truck has logged 440k mi of test.


I think the Windrose E1400 for the Australian market claims 1.8M km life. This of course still need to be validated.

The proof is in the pudding, we shall see how they hold up. Theoretically LFP lasts longer than NMC.
 
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Since this seems to be the catch all thread for Tesla now I have to ask if any watched Hagertys latest video on the Model S? Once again Jason Cammisa delivers a great video that gets right to the point about just how much of an impact the Model S had on the entire industry.

I will preface this by quoting him from the first few minutes of the video.

"This episode is not about a person its not about politics and its definitely not about whether you love or hate electrification. This episode is about a car.

Nobody says you have to like any of this but you're a car person you owe it to yourself to understand the unimaginable impact that this big hatchback had on the entire world. From the original prototype to the first production version to the final variant the Tesla Model S is the most important car of a lifetime."

 
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