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Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

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I think a few things are true regarding the domestic situation in Iran:

1) There is substantial dissatisfaction with the regime.
2) Trump encouraged uprising said he'd help and did not. People got killed.
3) As a result, while unhappy, a lot of people are not willing to take the risk again at present.
 
iCyborg said:
A couple weeks ago I spoke to a colleague who's from Iran and his parents and a brother are still in Teheran. He was showing me videos of missiles and smoke etc that they sent him. I was surprised to learn that his family is nevertheless more in support of US attacks than against it. It's not that they like being bombed of course, but after 30-40K people killed in protests, they don't see a way to end this regime without external help. It aligns with the sentiment in thilanliyan's post pretty well.
So now I have some mixed feelings as well.
Click to expand...
30-40k people killed in the protests is an example of that disinfo. I have no doubt there are genuine resistors to the regime, but what % they make is unknown.

Furthermore, Israel (and unwittingly the US), is not after regime change. They know that whoever comes after the regime may not be friendly or disposed to Israel/US, even if they are moderates or seculars.

All the signs are that Israel is trying to destroy Iran, to make it a failed state (like Syria). They've targetted all the institutions necessary for the proper functioning of a state, universities, municpalities, civil institutions, hospitals, police stations, prisons, and even museums and cultural, heritage sites.. Whatever is left in the rubble after all this is over, I do not think the majority of Iranians will have anything left to be grateful for.
 
K1052 said:
2) Trump encouraged uprising said he'd help and did not. People got killed.
3) As a result, while unhappy, a lot of people are not willing to take the risk again at present.
Click to expand...
Also, if you read theory (aka, "Bombing to Win"), aerial campaigns, especially when you don't care about civilian casualties, don't exactly win hearts and minds. And it then also helps to reinforce the propaganda (true or false) that the current government would be putting out.

All that's happened to date was extremely predictable, but we have complete nincompoops in charge.
 
Ugh seeing a bunch of F-15s for the last couple of hours at the air force base near me that usually only has training aircraft like T-38's flying into and out of it.
 
thilanliyan said:
The Iranian population is mostly (~80-90%) against the regime. The US is up against a well armed and trained regime, not the entire people, which is different than Ukraine where the majority are against Russia.
Click to expand...
The US bombed a bunch of little girls in Tehran, the people aren't gonna be on the side of the nazi US.
 
K1052 said:
I think a few things are true regarding the domestic situation in Iran:

1) There is substantial dissatisfaction with the regime.
2) Trump encouraged uprising said he'd help and did not. People got killed.
3) As a result, while unhappy, a lot of people are not willing to take the risk again at present.
Click to expand...

Brainonska511 said:
Also, if you read theory (aka, "Bombing to Win"), aerial campaigns, especially when you don't care about civilian casualties, don't exactly win hearts and minds. And it then also helps to reinforce the propaganda (true or false) that the current government would be putting out.

All that's happened to date was extremely predictable, but we have complete nincompoops in charge.
Click to expand...

And, the most vocal/active/etc voices in any resistance movement were likely just killed off in the recent purge. So any leadership for a potential uprising is effectively gone.

IOW, you couldn't have timed a military intervention worse if you tried, if the goal was actually some sort of grass roots overthrow of the current regime.
 
Brainonska511 said:
Also, if you read theory (aka, "Bombing to Win"), aerial campaigns, especially when you don't care about civilian casualties, don't exactly win hearts and minds. And it then also helps to reinforce the propaganda (true or false) that the current government would be putting out.

All that's happened to date was extremely predictable, but we have complete nincompoops in charge.
Click to expand...
They're not trying to win hearts and minds, Trump and Netenyahu don't want a stable Iran.
 
amenx said:
30-40k people killed in the protests is an example of that disinfo. I have no doubt there are genuine resistors to the regime, but what % they make is unknown.

Furthermore, Israel (and unwittingly the US), is not after regime change. They know that whoever comes after the regime may not be friendly or disposed to Israel/US, even if they are moderates or seculars.

All the signs are that Israel is trying to destroy Iran, to make it a failed state (like Syria). They've targetted all the institutions necessary for the proper functioning of a state, universities, municpalities, civil institutions, hospitals, police stations, prisons, and even museums and cultural, heritage sites.. Whatever is left in the rubble after all this is over, I do not think the majority of Iranians will have anything left to be grateful for.
Click to expand...
Ugh Israel and the US are fucking psychotic nations. Fuck them both.
 
cytg111 said:
You know government agencies dont just rely on scraping for keywords anymore, they can deduce context.
Click to expand...
Context must be fancy enough to deduce no intent and no means. Just spitting facts that we know the cause of all of this escalation and damage. To the US and all our former Allies.
 
pauldun170 said:
Keep in mind that the same observations occur in some US cities among specific segments of the population about the Trump regime. Same for Israel.
Many people I know hate Netanyahu and have protested in the streets.

Yet....
Here we are.
Click to expand...

- Remember how Egypt was supposed to turn into this flowering democracy and then the Muslim Brotherhood won the elections? Cairo is not all of Egypt. Tehran is not all of Iran. San Francisco is not the United States.

The people we're hearing from are liberal Iranians who have/had the means to flee the country.

I guarantee the Iranian regime has a bedrock of 30% conservative Iranian support no different than MAGA that would fight for the regime even if it flew in the face of their own self interest.

We are all more alike than we are different, always remember that.
 
MrSquished said:
I don't really have a horse in this race but all I know is I want Israel to lose
Click to expand...
But that’s what is stupid with the posters giving credit for the assassination and subsequent war, not like we supported the regime but for sure we were smart enough to see the outcome of this attack. And yup, play stupid games, win stupid prizes for Netanyahu
 
MrSquished said:
The source for the 30K killed was just made up. I am sure they killed many citizens, but the one main number that showed up was propaganda.
Click to expand...

5,000+ is still a lot. Kind of hard to get a accurate number out of Iran of how many of their own people the government killed.

UN Special Rapporteur: Mai Sato, the UN special rapporteur on Iran, cited "conservative" estimates of at least 5,000, with other credible reports suggesting as many as 20,000
 
Brovane said:
5,000+ is still a lot. Kind of hard to get a accurate number out of Iran of how many of their own people the government killed.

UN Special Rapporteur: Mai Sato, the UN special rapporteur on Iran, cited "conservative" estimates of at least 5,000, with other credible reports suggesting as many as 20,000
Click to expand...
Oh the Iranian regime is evil. But as far as Western Israeli News propaganda about what goes on in Iran - I don't trust any of it. Also, I do not want a joint American-Israeli supporting and propped up regime in Iran. Fuck Israel to hell.
 
MrSquished said:
Oh the Iranian regime is evil. But as far as Western Israeli News propaganda about what goes on in Iran - I don't trust any of it. Also, I do not want a joint American-Israeli supporting and propped up regime in Iran. Fuck Israel to hell.
Click to expand...

It isn't like Iran will ever be forthcoming with how many of their own citizens they killed suppressing dissent.

Enough to see the country of Israel "obliterated"?
 
Brovane said:
5,000+ is still a lot. Kind of hard to get a accurate number out of Iran of how many of their own people the government killed.

UN Special Rapporteur: Mai Sato, the UN special rapporteur on Iran, cited "conservative" estimates of at least 5,000, with other credible reports suggesting as many as 20,000
Click to expand...
Its an authoritarian regime. And as such regimes do, they violently suppress and kill anyone who tries to overthrow them. Its also a theocratic regime. In their eyes, they believe they are trying to uphold a 'virtuous' regime seeking to ensure the betterment of its people using relgion as a guiding force. It may be a fucked up regime, but they dont believe that at all.

The US, Israel may see them as evil but the regime legitimately sees THEM as evil, and it has more cause for that. For attacking and sanctioning it, for installing a dictator who oppressed them after overthrowing their democracy, for the US enabling Israel in their genocide and killing of tens of 1000s of civs in Gaza, Lebanon, for ethnic cleansig, invasions, stealing of land and the trashing of international laws.

When one looks at things strictly from one viewpoint, they may tend to miss the overall picture.
 
Trump says Iran's 'present' to him was allowing 8 - 10 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz

www.reuters.com

Trump says Iran's 'present' to US was allowing 10 oil tankers through Hormuz

U.S. President Donald Trumpsaid on Thursday that Iran was letting 10 oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz as an ‌apparent goodwill gesture in negotiations.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Did this actually happen? AFAIK .... A few Pakastani flagged ships went out and paid Iran for the passage. A big parade of tankers would have been reported. If true, my hunch: these 10 tankers were allowed to get through because - unbeknownst to Trump - the oil was paid in yuan and/or the companies shelled out the $2M per tanker.

Did the Iranians come up to trump with tears in their eyes and said, Sir, sir, here are 8, no 10 big boats full of oil just for you because you are the bestest of the bestest ever?

During today's Cabinet meeting, Trump first teased whether or not he should reveal what the gift was.

Lol! ... Trump is like an 8 year old girl with a secret she is busting at the seams over to tell someone.... anyone. He thinks everything is a reality show.

Trump is too stupid to realize it but Iran just demonstrated who really controls the Strait of Hormuz. He really is the dumbest president we've ever had.
 
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