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Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

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alien42 said:
So Trump TACO'd again and the ceasefire is extended until Iran offers a final solution to end the war. Why would they have any incentive to do that? I think Trump knows that Iran has him by the balls.

www.cnbc.com

Trump extends ceasefire in Iran, citing 'seriously fractured' Iranian government

Trump's announcement came after an expected trip by Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan for a peace talks with Iranian officials was put on hold.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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Non-sense - trump has no balls.
 
alien42 said:
So Trump TACO'd again and the ceasefire is extended until Iran offers a final solution to end the war. Why would they have any incentive to do that? I think Trump knows that Iran has him by the balls.
Click to expand...
I saw some earlier explanations for the "deadline" sliding back. Market close on Friday. And Israel wanted a couple more days to celebrate before missiles rain down on them again.

So... all that said, everything tracks to opening fire very soon. Just (maybe) not today.
 
alien42 said:
Blockade, what blockade?

"More than two dozen Iran-linked ships carrying oil and gas have evaded the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz"

Click to expand...

That the blockade is leaky is pretty unsurprising. There are just so many ships and tankers that want to avoid interception have some tricks (flag changes, AIS spoofing, etc). Iran also continues to receive inbound dark fleet tankers which keeps them from having to shut in their wells.
 
K1052 said:
That the blockade is leaky is pretty unsurprising. There are just so many ships and tankers that want to avoid interception have some tricks (flag changes, AIS spoofing, etc). Iran also continues to receive inbound dark fleet tankers which keeps them from having to shut in their wells.
Click to expand...
I'm a bit surprised that the US Navy/CIA/NSA can't identify Iranian ships with greater accuracy. Either we are more easily fooled than I would guess, or this is a 'release' valve to get oil to east Asian countries (esp. China).
 
redpill said:
Given Trump's approval ratings; I imagine that there is a witch hunt going on throughout the admin. Added bonus, Hegseth reportedly got an @SS chewing from Trump (others outside the Oval heard it) - scapegoats must be found and sent to the slaughter.
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There's always a witch hunt going on.
 
For those who would like a short breakdown of the problems associated with the delays in restarting oil and refined petro products when the straight eventual opens:

 
you2 said:
A wonderful change created by orange blob himself. I'm sure it is some how obamba or biden's fault that orange blob fucks everything up.
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Oh, this is an easy one, Obama brokered that horrible nuclear deal, they were two weeks away from having the nuclear, if he'd been a real negotiator like Herr Trump we would have had a much better deal (like you've never seen before, unprecedented nuclear deal, the greatest), and we wouldn't have had to go in to finish the job now. So he's just cleaning up the mess Obama left behind.
 
Jaskalas said:
FAFO....

With the United States no longer in the business of guaranteeing freedom of navigation at sea...
Other nations are eyeing their opportunity to cut up the world and seize their piece of the pie.

Indonesia suggests transit fees in key Australian shipping lane​

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The US was slowly stepping back from being the world's guarantor of the right to freedom of navigation. We just don't have enough destroyer class ships to do that anymore and the number of ship the Navy has is on the decline (budget and build rate problems). Trump just stepped on the gas and put that transition into overdrive. This admin just doesn't have the brain power to game out a situation for more than two weeks at a time; never mind a year, or a decade. Bozos 🙄
 
I would say if I was a historian 200 years ahead of our time currently, it would be so easy to say, Donald Trump, and by extension, his movement, was the single dumbest leader of anything resembling a nation-state in all of history up to now. It would be like the single most agreed upon easy historical fact of life of the human condition.
 
redpill said:
The US was slowly stepping back from being the world's guarantor of the right to freedom of navigation. We just don't have enough destroyer class ships to do that anymore and the number of ship the Navy has is on the decline (budget and build rate problems). Trump just stepped on the gas and put that transition into overdrive. This admin just doesn't have the brain power to game out a situation for more than two weeks at a time; never mind a year, or a decade. Bozos 🙄
Click to expand...

Two weeks? I’m pretty sure they didn’t plan anything past 24 hours and I’m not exaggerating.
 
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